June 21, 2020, 8:17 PM EST Original publish date
June 22, 2020, 5:44 AM EST Expanded Update
written by Net Advisor™
MANHATTAN, New York. Another poll created for Fox News is shown to have heavy bias. We discussed last October 11, 2019, how a Fox News ‘Trump impeachment poll’ over-sampled Democrats, thus creating bias in the polling results.
Once again a new 2020 Fox News Election Poll is riddled with bias.
Fox Poll Conducted by the Same 3rd Party.
In fairness to Fox for the last time, the poll was not conducted by Fox personnel, but rather by the exact same group who conducted the Trump impeachment poll in Oct. 2019.
The pollsters, Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research looked at an odd number of people surveying 1,343 for this current 2020 election poll.
Poll Claims.
Few highlights from the poll.
- 50% claim they would vote for Biden vs 38% for Trump in November 2020.
- 55% disapprove of Trump as President, with 45% approve. This is basically the same number since 2017 as the poll admits despite a 3-year record booming economy including for low income, middle class and minorities, up until the Coronavirus. None of these results ever occurred during the 8 years of the Obama-Biden Admin.
- 53% had a favorable view of Joe Biden vs 43% favorable for Trump. Biden really hasn’t said very much, because he’s been largely isolated. When Biden does speak, it’s usually problematic.
- 42% of the people surveyed said they have a positive view of Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT); while 41% said they have a positive view of Hillary Clinton. We don’t think either are very popular on a national scale, but that’s what the poll claimed.
Here is Where Polling Seems to Get Real Political.
According to the poll:
- 51% think ‘foreign interference’ is a ‘major threat’ in U.S. elections. There is no evidence that any foreign government or their Hench-persons, has cast a single vote to support this idea that we could uncover.
- 56% were’ in favor’ of the ‘protests’ followed the death of George Floyd. There were many protests, but heavy overshadowed by anarchy, violence, rioting, and arson. The pollsters didn’t have a single question how people felt about that.
Political Bias in Poll.
The pollsters over-sampled Democrats again.
- 47% Said they were (D).
- 41% Said they were (R).
- 13% Said “Other.”
- We have a general theory that some people may misstate their political affiliation to try and skew polls. Republicans might say there are Democrats fearing backlash. Democrats might say there are Republicans to show less support for the Republican candidate.
Polling Methodology Inconsistent with Voting Laws.
In reviewing the methodology used in the latest Fox News poll, the pollsters used a proportional number of voters in each state.
“…phone numbers for each state are proportional to the number of voters in each state.”
— Fox News Poll Methodology Statement.
This suggests the poll was based on population figures.
Thus states with a higher population will have more people counted than states with lower populations. This is the whole reason why there is an electoral college written in the U.S. Constitution. The Electoral College was set up such that lessor populated states would have a voice in government; and large populated states don’t control the laws and policies over the less populated states.
As a result, by proportional population, more people would have been polled in states such as California, Texas, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, and Illinois. Thus, this is a poll based on the ‘popular vote’ by the most populated states. Again, this is not how actual voting is conducted in national elections.
Next, the poll admitted to oversampling “selected black voters.” Choosing extra people to skew the results of a poll sounds a bit racist, and again is not reflective on how national elections are conducted.
Our analysis of the poll data shows 252 black or Afro-American voters sampled in the survey accounted for 18.76% of the total people sampled. {Math: 252 (the over-sample number by race) divided into 1,343 (total persons polled) = 18.7639 or 18.76% rounded to nearest whole number}.
According to U.S. population data, black/ Afro-Americans represent 12.7% of the U.S. population. This includes those too young to vote. So what we have is a large oversampling in the polling data, and additional oversampling of Democrats which to skew bias in favor of the Democrat candidate Joe Biden.
What’s interesting is that American Hispanics represent 17.6% of the U.S. population, and they were not counted fairly or over-sampled in the poll data. One might ask the pollsters why did they intentionally over-sampled people based on race and political affiliation? As some Fox News TV hosts regularly say that their program is, “fair and balanced.” I guess the exception is when it comes to polling data?
If I was consulting for Fox, I’d do my own homework and correctly, instead of farming it out to those who create this kind of work.
The polling data is not one groups fault. The pollsters are responsible for their own data.
If someone wants to do a focus poll of what one political group, or a particular segment of the U.S. population thinks about things, then do that. But oversampling a political group, or favoring a group over other groups is not going to give you accurate polling data on a national level.
More Fake Popular Polls.
There are a ton of polls out there and we give little credit to those such as in this case, who choose to not mirror a poll how national elections are actually conducted.
CNN put Biden ahead of Trump in a June 2020 poll. However this poll also over-sampled Democrats.
One poll claimed in 2016 that 38% of Florida voters thought Senator Ted Cruz (TX) could be the Zodiac Killer. That same pollster also claimed in 2019 that an Anti-American, Trump-hating soccer player led in a hypothetical presidential poll vs Trump.
Online Polls.
On-line polls aren’t scientific, but then again, neither are the polls we discuss.
A June 2, 2020 on-line poll via Twitter showed an outcome strikingly different than the polls we discussed.
Our view of the on-line Twitter polls tend to favor Trump by a wide margin. Again, these polls aren’t scientific, but do draw a massive response from people – really anyone with a Twitter account.
The Truth About Polls.
In 2014, Five Thirty Eight found that pollsters were “putting a thumb on the scale.” In other words, creating polls with bias instead of producing factual data.
About a month before the 2016 election, Thirty Five Eight correctly predicted Hillary Clinton with the ‘popular vote,’ especially when counting the most populated state, California. But the pollster missed the Electoral College Vote (the only one that legally matters) by a mile or one-hundred Electoral votes. (Final Data).
In a popular Quinnipiac University poll in 2015 said Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) beats Trump for President 51% vs 38%. Sanders lost to Clinton in the 2016 Primary.
We recently released a 2016 archive (with 2019 updates) on how the major media polls got it wrong during the 2016 election cycle. The only two that called it right were both discounted by all the other pollsters who were largely all wrong.
83 of 89 Pollsters Wrong on ‘Sanders v Trump 2020.’
The other popular media poll quoted is the Real Clear Politics (RCP) Average. The RCP said ‘Bernie Sanders beats Trump in 2020.’ After losing to Clinton in 2016, Sanders lost again to Biden in the 2020 Democratic primary.
We have not looked at the methodology used in the aforementioned 89 RCP Average polls. But regardless, only 6 of the 89 pollsters got the only candidate sill in the race correctly.
ABC News contributor, Matthew Dowd, said two days before the November 2016 election that ‘Clinton Has 95% Chance To Win.’ At 59 years-old, Dowd still can’t seem to figure out what party is aligned to his political ideology, as he’s been in all three (D) pre 1999, (R) 1999-2007, currently (I) 2008-.
Others, such as the Huffington Post (Huff Post) got their prediction wrong by a mile on Election Day 2016.
Have Pollsters Learned From the Past? – Don’t Bet on That.
We question whether the pollsters have learned from their past errors, and are providing accurate data now. The ones we have examined so far suggests – no they haven’t learned. This has led to the term ‘fake polls.’
The Examiner discussed how ‘fake polls’ are ‘destroying media credibility.’
Our Predictions.
About a year ago, June 12, 2019 we posted our view on how 2020 political candidates would go. We only have so many characters to write in Twitter, so we picked potentially ‘leading’ candidates.
We now know that 5 of the 6 polls quoted by actor and political activist Alyssa Milano were 100% wrong. Our prediction so far is 100% accurate with 5 of the 6 results proven.
The 6th poll (Trump v Biden) will be decided in November.
#FakePolls
Our current running predictions:
Odds of winning #Election2020.
Biden 0%
Sanders 0%
Harris 5%
Warren 0%
Buttigieg 0%
Booker 0%
Trump 90%
We correctly predicted @HillaryClinton @JebBush's loss in 2014. Ask 4 more past/current predictions. https://t.co/xKWJyHLlMZ— NetAdvisor.org® (@NetAdvisor) June 13, 2019
Update: How Might the 2020 Debates Go?
At this point we are wondering whether Joe Biden will actually participate in the Presidential debates. His handlers might push to have him do this by video conference where he can be more controlled.
These control measure including having a tiny ear piece in his ear which he has been doing on video already, where someone is coaching him, correcting him, telling him what to say, and feeding him answers.
The other way to control Biden is to have Teleprompters behind video cameras to further help Biden in ‘basement’ video debates.
All of these strategies don’t show signs of a capable, let alone competent candidate; rather more like a puppet.
For now, we would take most polls with a grain of salt, and advise to look at the methodology used that gave the results of a poll.
Anytime there are oversampling of one political group vs another, you can discard the results. The ultimate ‘poll results’ will come on or just after Election Day.
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