09.02.2011
August Jobs Report: No New Net Jobs – Previous Jobs Reports Revised Downward
Original article written by Net Advisor™
The Obama Administration released its latest jobs report:
Result: Zero net jobs created based on their own data (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics at BLS.gov (PDF Report – highlight added share report link). The Dow Jones Industrial Average initially fell about -250 on the news.
Data Summary based on BLS.gov Numbers:
- Non-Farm Payroll Employment (ie: Number of net new jobs created): Zero.
- Unemployment Rate: 9.1%
- Number of Unemployed Persons: 14 Million
- Number of Long Term Unemployed Persons: 6 Million (42.9% of unemployed)
- Number of People Not Counted as Unemployed but who are Unemployed: 2.6 Million, that’s +200,000 more people not being counted from year ago.
— Source: BLS.gov (PDF)
June and July Jobs Reports Revised Lower
The BLS.gov also admitted that the June and July 2011 jobs data was wrong. The number of new jobs created in June and July 2011 revised LOWER that previously stated.
The June 2011 new jobs report was cut in half (by about -57%). The BLS.gov reported +46,000 new jobs created last June, now revised to show +20,000 new jobs (BLS.gov PDF page 2, bottom highlight).
The July 2011 new jobs report was cut by -27%. The government report showed +117,000 new jobs created in July, now shows +85,000 jobs created in July (BLS.gov PDF page 2, bottom highlight).
Analysis
It’s good that there are some new (private sector) jobs, but the numbers are being revised sharply lower, and the current report shows no new gains. That is not exactly great news to the 14 million (official number) of unemployed persons.
The jobs data assumes that the government is reporting accurate information. This is not a conspiracy argument, it’s that we have shown over and over and over and over again that the government is under-reporting the unemployment rate by not counting everyone who are truly unemployed. The 60 Minuets TV program also echoed our numerous jobs analysis last year.
The Obama Administration maintains that they have “created 2 million new jobs.” Our July 2011 fact check questions this argument. Even MS-NBC’s Meet the Press TV program questioned the Obama Administration’s jobs and economic record last July.
It may be theoretically possible that the August 2011 jobs report was exactly at a “net zero” jobs gain. But statistically speaking, the odds of a large government number netting at zero is extremely rare. If you start counting the 2.6 million people who are not being counted as unemployed, the U.S. economy has arguably been losing jobs.
Obama will make another ‘create jobs speech’ next week. However based on the track record, it is hard to imagine that the Administration is going to do something different this time and that will work.
“The Obama Administration is just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.”
— Net Advisor™
Deficit Watch & the Economy
If government thinks that cutting $2 or 3 Trillion from the deficit over the next 10 years is going to do anything positive for the economy, then they will have a rude economic awaking unlike the U.S. has ever experienced. The U.S. is clearly on the wrong track and voters are upset. A recent poll showed that 76% of likely voters say America is on the wrong track.
“Seventy-six percent (76%) of voters say the country is heading down the wrong track.”
— Source: Rasmussen Reports Poll, 08-31-2011
The President will have a hard time convincing people after three years that “hope” and “change” is still the recipe for a growing economy. Obama can argue he inherited this mess, blame whomever he wants to blame, but the facts are the unemployment rate is up under Obama’s watch, the Administration is spending twice as fast as Bush spent in half the time; and the U.S. credit downgraded for the first time in history. Is this the change America was looking for?
Graphic: public domain (original source unknown), may be subject to copyright.
Original Content Copyright © 2011 Net Advisor™ All Rights Reserved.
