10.02.2009 original publish date
03.11.2011 cosmetic update
Can I Profit From 2012?
original article written by Net Advisor™
Most of us have heard about it, the rest us will when the movie 2012 comes out November 13, 2009. That tells you a lot about America and the world. We don’t pay much attention to science until they make a movie about it.
We’ll it’s not a myth, there will be a 2012 short of getting nuked or blindsided by a major asteroid or meteorite (list) or what is referred to as a Near Earth Object (NEO).
The question as to, is the world is going to end in 2012 or any other time, I have no idea. If I was to guess, the odds are low. Actually the odds are about 1 in 1.5 million. Read More: [What Are The Odds Of That?]
Some argue that the planets are supposedly to align and this has apparently not happened in human life. Some further argue the earth will “flip” on is access where the north and south pole will change.
Here is the weird part for the conspiracy people and doomsayers.
February 15, 2001 (NASA):
“…the Sun has just undergone an important change. Our star’s magnetic field has flipped. The Sun’s magnetic north pole, which was in the northern hemisphere just a few months ago, now points south.”
— Source: NASA
Why is this weird?
The sun flipped axis in a very short period, so why can’t a planet?
Rotating Mother Planet
The Earth also has been rotating off its access but at a slower rate.
According to NASA scientists:
“(The) Earth’s magnetic field also flips, but with less regularity. Consecutive reversals are spaced 5 thousand years to 50 million years apart. The last reversal happened 740,000 years ago. Some researchers think our planet is overdue for another one, but nobody knows exactly when the next reversal might occur.”
— Source: NASA
The sun is expected to flip axis again, in…yes, you guesses it, 2012:
“The Sun’s magnetic poles will remain as they are now, with the north magnetic pole pointing through the Sun’s southern hemisphere, until the year 2012 when they will reverse again.”
—-Source: NASA
Calendar Ends 2012?
Separately, the Mayan calendar which is the oldest known calendar (5,126 years old), just so happens to come to an end on December 20, 2012 (Source: NASA).
Opposing View About 2012
According to NASA’s David Morrison who said in 2008:
“There is no planet alignment in 2012 or any other time in the next several decades…(and in short he states)…there is no possibility of a “polar shift” and no danger associated with one.”
— Source: Astrobiology.NASA
So let’s play… “let’s pretend.”
Scenario 1:
Fist of all, if you are in the camp that the Earth will flip axis at any time in our lifetime, or say even 2012, then you certainly don’t want to be long anything. Assuming anyone survived, the stock market would collapse, and we would be living back in the Stone Age. All technology, all electronic devices, anything with a micro chip would render useless. So you would want to be short the market before then. Maybe buy S&P 500 put options. Risk is limited to the amount of money used to buy the option. If I was in this camp, I’d buy puts all high $$$ tech stocks.
Scenario 2:
Let’s say “everyone” was short the market before 12-20-2012 and nothing happens. The market would likely have a massive short squeeze and could have the mother of all short term rallies. Then you would want to be long.
Scenario 3:
Nothing happens. It’s just another work day (Thursday).
OK, that was the let’s pretend.
What Is Net Advisor™ Going to Do?
I might buy some put and or call options on the S&P 500 Index and sit in mostly Treasuries right before these events because the fear of people can influence the market and trading. I’m a shorter term player anyway and trade a lot of news and events. So this is news and this is an event. Possible trading material. I’ll decide later as that time gap gets closer.
(c) NYTimes. Atari Archive Flyer (1979)
(c) Warner Communications/ Time Warner
Further Reading:
Nibiru and Doomsday 2012: Questions and Answers (NASA)
“2012 Phenomenon” (wikipedia.org)
Forthcoming Close Approaches To The Earth (Harvard)
Planetary Alignments: Fact or Fiction? (East Tennessee State University)
2029 and 2036 “Close Encounters” Asteroid (NASA)
Risk: Odds currently (2009) 2.7% chance or 1 in 15,000 of Earth Impact.
2029 and 2036 “Close Encounters” Asteroid (Wikipedia.org)
General Science Disclaimer:
“ The data hereto is completely being relied based on 3rd party sources which can change at any time without notice, and such includes data comes from sources that are generally deemed as credible such as NASA and Harvard University.”
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